Ones to watch
Darwin cafe trends with the strongest early signals, scored out of 100.
The early signal score
Darwin's scores come from Google reviews, cafe menus and searches. We don't read Darwin cafes' posts yet, so the parts built on posts (creators and likes) have no reading here.
A number from 0 to 100 for how strong a trend's early signals are today. It is new and unproven. It is not a prediction and not a chance of anything: we do not have enough history yet to test one.
- Spread 22% of the score
- How many unrelated cafes posted it, and across how many suburbs.
- Momentum 22% of the score
- Whether more of the same cafes post it now than before, or more cafes and creators than its own history predicts.
- Search 16% of the score
- How many people in Darwin search for it, and whether that is growing.
- Creators 10% of the score
- How many independent food creators posted it.
- Confirmation 10% of the score
- How many different kinds of evidence agree: cafe posts, creators, menus, reviews, press, searches.
- Engagement 8% of the score
- Whether posts about it get more likes than the cafe's usual post.
- Names 7% of the score
- Whether cafes are giving it their own names.
- Freshness 5% of the score
- Whether we first saw it recently and it is still being posted.
A part with too little behind it is left out and marked "not enough yet", so missing data never counts against a trend. Anything seen at fewer than 3 cafes is held at 25 or under, and anything no cafe has posted yet at 10.
Every day we record each score and the figures behind it, for the trends that go nowhere too, so the score can be checked against what happens and corrected.
Version 0.1, set on 12 Nov 2026. How the score works, in full
The radar
18 trends to watchReading the radar
Each drawing is a trend. Across: how many Darwin cafes posted it in the last 90 days (each step is about twice as many). Up: whether more of the same cafes have it now than in the 90 days before.
Up and to the left is the corner to watch: growing, on few cafes so far.
Past the dashed line are trends already on more than 1 in 10 of the 42 Darwin cafes we read. They are not ones to watch any more, so they are listed apart, not ranked.
Reading the radar
Each drawing is a trend. Across: how many Darwin cafes posted it in the last 90 days (each step is about twice as many). Up: whether more of the same cafes have it now than in the 90 days before.
Up and to the left is the corner to watch: growing, on few cafes so far.
Past the dashed line are trends already on more than 1 in 10 of the 42 Darwin cafes we read. They are not ones to watch any more, so they are listed apart, not ranked.
Up and left: growing on few cafes so far. Figures to 14 Nov 2026.
bigSlowingMore cafes Growing
Mont Blanc coffee
4 cafes · 0 of the same cafes, down from 2
Ranked by early signal
Micro means fewer than 10 cafes have posted it in the last 90 days in every city we track. The tag goes by itself once 10 or more cafes in any city have it.
18 trends shown
- Mont Blanc coffee4 cafes in the last 90 days35Early signal score: 35 out of 100
- Cold foam4 cafes in the last 90 days32Early signal score: 32 out of 100
- Biscoff3 cafes in the last 90 days29Early signal score: 29 out of 100
- Matcha cloudFirst seen 24 Sep 202625Early signal score: 25 out of 100
- Tiramisu2 cafes in the last 90 days25Early signal score: 25 out of 100
- Turkish eggs2 cafes in the last 90 days25Early signal score: 25 out of 100
- Ube1 cafe in the last 90 days25Early signal score: 25 out of 100
- Basque cheesecakeFirst seen 15 Sep 202623Early signal score: 23 out of 100
- Cold brew4 cafes in the last 90 days20Early signal score: 20 out of 100
- Hot honey4 cafes in the last 90 days19Early signal score: 19 out of 100
Show all 18 trendsShow fewer trends
- Coconut cloud2 cafes in the last 90 days15Early signal score: 15 out of 100
- Protein coffee2 cafes in the last 90 days15Early signal score: 15 out of 100
- Yuzu1 cafe in the last 90 days14Early signal score: 14 out of 100
- Mango matchaFirst seen 18 Sep 20269Early signal score: 9 out of 100
- TaroFirst seen 30 Oct 20269Early signal score: 9 out of 100
- Black sesameFirst seen 3 Oct 20263Early signal score: 3 out of 100
- Hojicha3Early signal score: 3 out of 100
- Pistachio3Early signal score: 3 out of 100
Already big
Questions people ask
What new cafe trends are emerging in Darwin?
The Froth has 18 trends on its Emerging board as of 14 Nov 2026: trends in their Emerging or Rising stage, 1 of them small enough to be tagged Micro. The strongest early signals are Mont Blanc coffee (35), Cold foam (32) and Biscoff (29), on our early signal score out of 100.
How does the early signal score work?
It is a number from 0 to 100 built from eight parts: how many unrelated cafes post a trend, whether more of the same cafes post it than before, Darwin searches, food creators, how many kinds of evidence agree, likes, the names cafes give it, and how recently it was first seen. A part with too little behind it is left out, and anything seen at fewer than 3 cafes is held at 25 or under.
Is the early signal score a prediction?
No. The score (version 0.1) is new and unproven. It sums up today's signals and shows its reasons; it is not a forecast and not a probability. We do not yet have enough history to test one, so we record every score daily, including for trends that go nowhere, to check it against what happens.
What does the Micro tag mean?
Micro means fewer than 10 cafes have posted it in the last 90 days in every city we track. The tag goes by itself once 10 or more cafes in any city have it. It is the same trend either way: every name it goes by, a share of cafes, a stage and a list of places to get it.
Facts to quote
- 18 trends are on The Froth's Darwin Emerging board as of 14 Nov 2026, each in its Emerging or Rising stage; 1 are tagged Micro (fewer than 10 cafes in the last 90 days in every city).
- Mont Blanc coffee has the strongest early signals, with a score of 35 out of 100 (4 cafes in the last 90 days).
- Of the Micro trends, Protein coffee scores highest at 15 out of 100.
- Strawberry matcha (1 in 7 cafes) is already on more than 1 in 10 Darwin cafes, so it is listed apart rather than ranked.
- The early signal score (version 0.1, set 12 Nov 2026) is built from eight parts and is not a prediction: it is new and has not been tested against outcomes yet.
- A trend seen at fewer than 3 Darwin cafes is held at 25 or under, whatever its searches say.
Updated
How the score works
A number from 0 to 100 for how strong a trend's early signals are today. It is new and unproven. It is not a prediction and not a chance of anything: we do not have enough history yet to test one.
- Spread 22% of the score
- How many unrelated cafes posted it, and across how many suburbs.
- Momentum 22% of the score
- Whether more of the same cafes post it now than before, or more cafes and creators than its own history predicts.
- Search 16% of the score
- How many people in Darwin search for it, and whether that is growing.
- Creators 10% of the score
- How many independent food creators posted it.
- Confirmation 10% of the score
- How many different kinds of evidence agree: cafe posts, creators, menus, reviews, press, searches.
- Engagement 8% of the score
- Whether posts about it get more likes than the cafe's usual post.
- Names 7% of the score
- Whether cafes are giving it their own names.
- Freshness 5% of the score
- Whether we first saw it recently and it is still being posted.
A part with too little behind it is left out and marked "not enough yet", so missing data never counts against a trend. Anything seen at fewer than 3 cafes is held at 25 or under, and anything no cafe has posted yet at 10.
Growth is only ever measured on the same cafes in both periods, so reading more cafes never looks like a trend taking off. A breakout in searches is scaled by the searches behind it: a jump from almost nothing adds almost nothing.
The tag beside a score says how much it rests on: good evidence is six or more parts with a reading and at least 10 cafes; some evidence is four parts and 3 cafes; anything less is thin.
Every day we record each score and the figures behind it, for the trends that go nowhere too, so the score can be checked against what happens and corrected.
Version 0.1, set on 12 Nov 2026.