Ones to watch

Melbourne cafe trends with the strongest early signals, scored out of 100.

New and unproven, not a prediction.

The radar

33 trends to watch

Up and left: growing on few cafes so far. Figures to 13 Nov 2026.

Ones to watchAlready
bigSlowingMore cafes Growing

Mont Blanc coffee

Rising

Early signal score: 71 out of 100

113 cafes · 16 of the same cafes, up from 11

Ranked by early signal

33 trends shown

  1. Mont Blanc coffeeRising113 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 71 out of 100
  2. UbeRising35 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 70 out of 100
  3. Cold foamRising94 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 69 out of 100
  4. Coconut matcha cloudRising27 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 61 out of 100
  5. Mango matchaEmerging45 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 61 out of 100
  6. YuzuRising60 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 58 out of 100
  7. Basque cheesecakeEmerging93 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 57 out of 100
  8. BiscoffRising71 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 53 out of 100
  9. Pistachio croissantEmerging27 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 52 out of 100
  10. Matcha cloudRising43 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 51 out of 100
Show all 33 trendsShow fewer trends
  1. PistachioEmerging62 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 49 out of 100
  2. Hot honeyEmerging72 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 49 out of 100
  3. Black sesameEmerging27 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 49 out of 100
  4. Turkish eggsEmerging83 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 48 out of 100
  5. TiramisuRising66 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 47 out of 100
  6. HojichaEmerging80 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 46 out of 100
  7. Earl grey matchaEmerging16 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 46 out of 100
  8. Salted mapleRising8 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 46 out of 100
  9. TaroEmerging31 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 45 out of 100
  10. HibiscusRising17 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 43 out of 100
  11. Coconut cloudEmerging9 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 42 out of 100
  12. LavenderEmerging12 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 39 out of 100
  13. EinspannerEmerging6 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 38 out of 100
  14. PandanEmerging14 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 37 out of 100
  15. CruffinEmerging23 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 32 out of 100
  16. ElderflowerEmergingMicro3 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 32 out of 100
  17. HoneycombEmerging5 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 30 out of 100
  18. Iced turmeric latteEmergingMicro6 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 26 out of 100
  19. Protein coffeeEmergingMicroSearches up 39% vs Aug to Oct 2025Early signal score: 25 out of 100
  20. Jasmine matcha cloudEmergingMicroSearches up 113% vs Aug to Oct 2025Early signal score: 25 out of 100
  21. Coconut water espressoEmergingMicro2 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 23 out of 100
  22. Brown butterEmergingMicro3 cafes in the last 90 daysEarly signal score: 21 out of 100
  23. Coconut water cold brewEmergingMicroFirst seen 20 Oct 2026Early signal score: 21 out of 100

Already big

Questions people ask

What new cafe trends are emerging in Melbourne?

The Froth has 33 trends on its Emerging board as of 13 Nov 2026: trends in their Emerging or Rising stage, 7 of them small enough to be tagged Micro. The strongest early signals are Mont Blanc coffee (71), Ube (70) and Cold foam (69), on our early signal score out of 100.

How does the early signal score work?

It is a number from 0 to 100 built from eight parts: how many unrelated cafes post a trend, whether more of the same cafes post it than before, Melbourne searches, food creators, how many kinds of evidence agree, likes, the names cafes give it, and how recently it was first seen. A part with too little behind it is left out, and anything seen at fewer than 3 cafes is held at 25 or under.

Is the early signal score a prediction?

No. The score (version 0.1) is new and unproven. It sums up today's signals and shows its reasons; it is not a forecast and not a probability. We do not yet have enough history to test one, so we record every score daily, including for trends that go nowhere, to check it against what happens.

What does the Micro tag mean?

Micro means fewer than 10 cafes have posted it in the last 90 days in every city we track. The tag goes by itself once 10 or more cafes in any city have it. It is the same trend either way: every name it goes by, a share of cafes, a stage and a list of places to get it.

Facts to quote
  • 33 trends are on The Froth's Melbourne Emerging board as of 13 Nov 2026, each in its Emerging or Rising stage; 7 are tagged Micro (fewer than 10 cafes in the last 90 days in every city).
  • Mont Blanc coffee has the strongest early signals, with a score of 71 out of 100 (113 cafes in the last 90 days).
  • Of the Micro trends, Elderflower scores highest at 32 out of 100.
  • Iced latte (1 in 4 cafes), Cold brew (1 in 7 cafes), Strawberry matcha (1 in 9 cafes) are already on more than 1 in 10 Melbourne cafes, so they are listed apart rather than ranked.
  • The early signal score (version 0.1, set 12 Nov 2026) is built from eight parts and is not a prediction: it is new and has not been tested against outcomes yet.
  • A trend seen at fewer than 3 Melbourne cafes is held at 25 or under, whatever its searches say.

Updated

How the score works

A number from 0 to 100 for how strong a trend's early signals are today. It is new and unproven. It is not a prediction and not a chance of anything: we do not have enough history yet to test one.

Spread 22% of the score
How many unrelated cafes posted it, and across how many suburbs.
Momentum 22% of the score
Whether more of the same cafes post it now than before, or more cafes and creators than its own history predicts.
Search 16% of the score
How many people in Melbourne search for it, and whether that is growing.
Creators 10% of the score
How many independent food creators posted it.
Confirmation 10% of the score
How many different kinds of evidence agree: cafe posts, creators, menus, reviews, press, searches.
Engagement 8% of the score
Whether posts about it get more likes than the cafe's usual post.
Names 7% of the score
Whether cafes are giving it their own names.
Freshness 5% of the score
Whether we first saw it recently and it is still being posted.

A part with too little behind it is left out and marked "not enough yet", so missing data never counts against a trend. Anything seen at fewer than 3 cafes is held at 25 or under, and anything no cafe has posted yet at 10.

Growth is only ever measured on the same cafes in both periods, so reading more cafes never looks like a trend taking off. A breakout in searches is scaled by the searches behind it: a jump from almost nothing adds almost nothing.

The tag beside a score says how much it rests on: good evidence is six or more parts with a reading and at least 10 cafes; some evidence is four parts and 3 cafes; anything less is thin.

Every day we record each score and the figures behind it, for the trends that go nowhere too, so the score can be checked against what happens and corrected.

Version 0.1, set on 12 Nov 2026.

How we track trends, in full